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Adani Power - Initial Public Offer - An analysis

We all know that the most promising industry in India is Power. There are many players who are jumping into this arena to generate power, as our demand for Power is growing tremendously. Reliance Power came with a bang and now quoting way below the issue price (It never closed a day above the issue price). Though the price of Adani Power is more compared to the fundamentals, it was tipped to get more return on what is called as Listing Gain. The amount you will get in the market vis-a-vis the price you purchased in an IPO. This created more hype for the Adani Power and the NHPC as the market was in a bull phase. Everyone knowing that the price and of Rs.90-Rs.100 is a bit high, but applied for the same.

The issue was over-subscribed. The portion reserved for qualified institutional buyers got subscribed over 39 times the shares on offer, while the non-institutional and retail investors portion were subscribed over 8 and 2.5 times respectively at the close of the IPO. So, the company decided to fix the price of the share at Rs.100 (top of the band)

Today (20th August 2009) the share got listed.
On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the share listed at Rs 108 (a premium of 8% to its issue price of Rs 100 a share). On the BSE, the share had opened at Rs 105, (a premium of 5%).

At the end of the day it closed at Rs 100.10 on the NSE. During the day ita high of Rs 110 and low of Rs 98.30.

On the BSE, it closed at Rs 100.05 . During the day It touched an high of Rs 107.90 and low of Rs 98.50.


What do we learn from this? Look for the fundamentals like Price to Book Value, Price to Earnings, etc., and not listing gains. Look at the peers (Tata Power, Reliance Power, NTPC) in the industry with proven record and compare the fundamental.


The news is that the share of Adani Power may go up a bit and then come down below Rs.90 soon. For a long term investment, get this share at Rs.80 - Rs.90 level.


More people may wonder why I wrote suddenly on a Stock! Some of my friends asked me this question on how the IPO is priced what is a listing gain and how to analyse the fundamentals of a particular stock. This is a start and frequently I will write on the basics of the Stock Market (in India)

3 comments:

S.Anand Nataraj on Aug 21, 2009, 6:28:00 AM said...

Dear Gopal,

We would love to get your tips on markets... My MBA prof. who is an expert in analyzing the markets hid a lot of skit based work shops and taught such that we understand the fundamentals...

But experience & knowledge is overtaken by greed... Also considering the case of Satyam, Enron & worldcom where they cooked their books we cant depend on the authenticity of the numbers they publish.

Comming to Adani Power how can we compare it with RPower or GVK power?? Both well established companies and trading less than Adani's market price? Is it advisible to consider those two scripts???

Awaiting your response...

Regards,
Anand

Gopal Ramanan on Aug 21, 2009, 3:41:00 PM said...

Thanks Anand. Yes, the fundamentals are not only for the company but also for the industry, which we need to look into.
I will analyse the various companies in the power sector tonight and post it. It is a good question.
Cheers...gopal

Satish on Aug 21, 2009, 7:06:00 PM said...

The loss in Adani Power can also be attributed to volatility in the current market. The power sector is part of core infrastructure, hence in the long term will show good returns.....

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